Machine Learning

Measuring Short-Rate Dynamics in Indonesia: IndONIA, Spreads, and Out-of-Sample Accuracy

This study develops a practical forecast for IndONIA 1-month at quarter end and identifies the forces that shape its path. A harmonized quarterly dataset from CEIC and Bloomberg underpins the analy...

Gold as a Hedging and Alternative Investment Instrument: An Empirical Analysis Using Mean-Variance Optimization

The study evaluates whether gold is a suitable and effective portfolio asset for Indonesia, focusing on its roles as hedge, safe haven, and diversifier. It frames the question in an Indonesia-centr...

Neural Investing (Trading): Harnessing Artificial Neural Network for Stock Market Strategies

Convolutional Recurrent Neural Networks (CRNN) outperform other models in maximizing cumulative returns, while Transformers and Self-Attention models excel in risk-adjusted returns and drawdown min...

The Impact of Various Shocks to Indonesia’s Bond Yield: Lag-Augmented Local-Projection (LP)

This IFG Progress Digest is the follow-up of Economic Bulletin (EB) – Issue 44 Indonesia’s Yield Curve In 2024: Machine Learning & Dynamic Nelson Siegel (DNS) Model where we explore as to how macr...

Indonesia’s Yield Curve In 2024: Machine Learning & Dynamic Nelson Siegel (DNS) Model

The term structure of the Yield Curve is one of the most essential tools in financial economics. All agents, both government and private firms, set them as a benchmark for implementing their policy...