Ibrahim Kholilul Rohman is a lecturer at University of Indonesia and head of IFG Progress, where Nada Serpina serves as a research associate. The views expressed are personal.
While missiles capture the headlines, it is the silent calculations of the insurance market that truly hold the power to paralyze global trade.
When two Indonesian oil tankers were forced to wait near the Strait of Hormuz this month, the explanation seemed obvious: geopolitical tension in the Middle East. Yet the real constraint had not been missiles or naval blockades; it had been insurance. That matters because the modern economy depends on ships. According to UNCTAD (2024), about 80 percent of global merchandise trade moves by sea. Such dependence inevitably exposes the global economy to maritime risk, particularly amid rising tensions in the Gulf.x While the United States and Israel deploy precision weapons such as Tomahawk cruise missiles and Iran relies on a large arsenal of ballistic missiles, including the Shahab-3 and Emad, weapons rarely stop maritime trade on their own. In modern shipping, the true switch that halts vessels is insurance. In modern maritime trade, insurance is not merely a financial safeguard. It is a critical infrastructure that determines whether shipping can occur at all, particularly during periods of geopolitical conflict. Commercial vessels typically require multiple layers of insurance, including marine hull insurance, which covers damage to the vessel itself, and war-risk insurance, which protects against losses caused by military attacks. Marine hull insurance protects the physical structure of ships, including machinery and onboard equipment, against risks such as collision, piracy and severe weather. Because ships are capital-intensive assets operating in inherently risky environments, this insurance is essential for stabilizing global logistics. While war-risk insurance is typically structured as a separate endorsement, marine hull insurance remains the core product. Globally, this market is concentrated in a handful of centers. Europe dominates with more than US$5.1 billion in premiums, driven by Nordic insurers and the London market, while in Asia, China has emerged as the largest market, followed by Singapore and Japan.
The importance of maritime insurance becomes most visible during crises. When conflict escalates, insurers reassess risk almost immediately. If coverage is withdrawn or premiums rise sharply, ships often stop sailing even without a physical blockade. Current tensions involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz illustrate this mechanism clearly. The waterway carries roughly one-fifth of global oil and gas shipments. When tensions surge, insurers quickly reassess their exposure. For Indonesia, this dynamic is not a distant geopolitical story. It recently affected Indonesian shipping operations directly. Kompas (March 4, 2026) reported that two oil tankers operated by PT Pertamina International Shipping were temporarily caught in the disruption around the Strait of Hormuz as tensions escalated. Indonesian authorities monitored the situation closely while pursuing diplomatic channels to ensure the vessels could pass safely through the corridor. Eventually, both ships managed to leave the high-risk area unharmed. This incident revealed how swiftly geopolitical shocks thousands of kilometers away can reverberate through Indonesia’s energy supply chain. What has already changed, however, is the perception of risk. In moments like this, risk premiums tend to surge, and the cost of maritime insurance climbs accordingly, a burden that will persist unless tensions ease in the near future. For Indonesia, the exposure is unavoidable given the country’s dependence on maritime routes for energy imports. The risk becomes even more acute when the government itself acknowledges that national oil reserves cover only about 20 days of consumption, leaving little buffer if disruptions in shipping or insurance markets persist. The real constraint is rarely the physical closure of a sea lane; it is the repricing of risk. Without valid insurance, vessels cannot secure bank financing, enter many ports, or obtain charter contracts. In practical terms, a ship without insurance cannot operate commercially even if the sea route itself remains physically open. Consider the case of a very large crude carrier (VLCC), a class of vessel that Pertamina itself operates, and one of the largest tankers used in global energy transport. A VLCC typically carries around two million barrels of crude oil and costs roughly $150 million to build. If insurance premiums increase by just 1 percent, the additional insurance cost alone could reach about $1.5 million for a single voyage. These cost increases propagate quickly through the global economy. Higher war-risk premiums raise freight rates and transportation costs for energy shipments. In extreme cases, shipping companies may suspend voyages entirely if insurance becomes unavailable. For countries like Indonesia that rely on imported crude and petroleum products, the impact can be immediate. Higher insurance premiums translate into higher freight costs, raising the landed price of energy imports. The additional burden can ripple through the domestic economy, putting pressure on fuel subsidies, widening fiscal deficits, weakening the rupiah through higher import bills and contributing to inflation. The broader lesson is that maritime insurance markets act as a real-time risk-pricing mechanism for geopolitical tensions. Military confrontation may create the initial threat, but the actual disruption to global trade often occurs through financial channels. Once insurers judge that risks have become too high to insure, or premiums become prohibitively expensive, shipping activity slows dramatically. In this sense, underwriters and reinsurers have become pivotal actors in the functioning of global trade routes. Their decisions determine whether energy continues to flow through strategic choke points such as the Strait of Hormuz and whether global supply chains remain stable during periods of geopolitical conflict. Missiles dominate headlines during geopolitical turbulence. But in the global trading system, it is often the insurance market that quietly decides whether ships sail at all.
This article was published in thejakartapost.com with the title "". Click to read: https://www.thejakartapost.com/opinion/2026/03/12/neither-the-us-nor-iran-can-halt-sea-trade-insurance-can.