United States Recent data point to a U.S. economy that is still expanding but gradually cooling. On the activity side, S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI stood at 52.5 in October 2025, edging up from 52.0 in September 2025, while the Services PMI rose to 54.8 from 54.2, indicating continued but moderate growth in both factory output and services. Inflation has eased from earlier peaks but remains above target: in September 2025, CPI increased 3.0% YoY, with price pressures concentrated in housing and other services, while transport and apparel have moved out of earlier deflation. Labour-market conditions are also softening at the margin, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% in August 2025 from 4.0% in January 2025, and part-time unemployment climbing more noticeably, against the backdrop of a federal government shutdown that has disrupted some official data releases. In response, the Federal Reserve has started to lower the federal funds rate target range from 4.25–4.50% to 3.75–4.00%, shifting toward a “less tight” stance aimed at easing pressure on growth without reigniting inflation and providing some relief to global financial conditions via lower US yields and a potentially softer dollar. Eurozone Latest indicators portray a euro area economy that is slowly recovering but still fragile. Confidence has improved at the margin, with the Consumer Confidence Index rising to –14.2 in October 2025 and the Economic Sentiment Indicator up to 96.8, yet sentiment remains below its historical norm and households are still cautious, as shown by weak major-purchase intentions and soft retail sales (–0.1% MoM in both August and September 2025). Business surveys are more upbeat: the HCOB Composite PMI climbed to 52.5 in October 2025, driven by a stronger services sector and a return to marginal manufacturing growth, and employment is rising even as cost pressures ease. Hard data confirm a modest upturn, with GDP expanding 0.2% QoQ and 1.4% YoY in Q3 2025, supported by solid performances in Spain, France and the Netherlands, while Germany and Italy stagnate, reinforcing a two-speed growth pattern across the bloc. Inflation has edged close to target, with headline HICP at 2.1% YoY and core at 2.4% YoY in October 2025, but services inflation around 3.4% and cross-country dispersion keep underlying pressures from fully normalising. Against this backdrop, the ECB has left policy rates unchanged (2.15% main refinancing, 2.00% deposit, 2.40% marginal lending), signalling a pause to gauge how gradually normalising credit and liquidity conditions feed through to growth and inflation before considering any further adjustment.. China China’s economy remains in expansion but on a softer and more uneven footing. In Q3 2025, real GDP grew 4.8% YoY (down from 5.2% YoY in Q2), with services such as information and IT, leasing and business services, finance and trade growing around 4–11% YoY, while real estate (–1.5% YoY) and construction (–4.0% YoY) continued to drag on growth. The manufacturing PMI slipped to 50.0 in October 2025 from 51.2 in September 2025, and product-level industrial output for key durables and many chemicals turned from positive to clearly negative YoY, highlighting pressure on traditional industry. Retail sales by product group weakened in October after a strong September, as food, beverages, alcohol and autos fell month-on-month even though clothing, cosmetics and jewellery stayed strong. The surveyed urban unemployment rate was broadly stable at 5.1% in October 2025, within a 5.0–5.4% range since January, pointing to a soft but not sharply deteriorating labour market. Inflation remains very low, with headline CPI at –0.1% YoY and food prices at –5.6% YoY, while core CPI around 1.0% YoY, PPI near 0.8% YoY, and a small 0.14% rise in year-to-date building prices (0.21% for residential) suggest disinflation is starting to stabilise and the housing market is moving from correction toward a tentative floor. Indonesia Indonesia is growing at a steady pace, with real GDP around 5.0% YoY in Q3 2025, still driven mainly by domestic demand: household consumption and government spending remain firm, investment is expanding moderately, and exports continue to grow slightly faster than imports. Headline inflation picked up to 2.86% YoY in October 2025, but pressure is concentrated in food, beverages and tobacco and personal care and other services, while most other components (housing, transport, education) stay low, so overall inflation is still within Bank Indonesia’s target band. High-frequency indicators are consistent with a gradual recovery: the manufacturing PMI has been above 50 for five consecutive months, the Retail Sales Index in October 2025 was slightly higher than in September, and business surveys show small positive net balances across agriculture, manufacturing, utilities, construction and services. Against this backdrop, Bank Indonesia has kept the BI-Rate at 4.75% to support rupiah stability and encourage portfolio inflows, while fiscal policy remains mildly expansionary but prudent, with revenue and spending execution near three-quarters of the annual plan and a focus on priority health, education, social and infrastructure programs.