United States (US) economy shows a mixed outlook, with strong domestic demand driven by the services sector, but increasing pressure from external trade. The trade deficit has widened notably following the implementation of Trump's reciprocal tariffs, which have begun to raise prices on certain consumer goods. While the overall growth trajectory remains moderate, downside risks are mounting. In response, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 4.3% this month.
Euro area economy shows early signs of stabilization, with consumer confidence slightly improving and inflation aligning with the ECB’s 2% target. Supported by a strong services trade surplus and a strengthened current account, the ECB held rates steady at 2% after eight consecutive cuts, while keeping the door open for further easing.
China’s June 2025 data signals underlying resilience, with Q2 GDP growth at 5.2%, slightly above expectations, and strength in industrial output, especially in the technology and new energy sectors. Meanwhile, the trade surplus widened amid a temporary easing of tariff pressures. However, manufacturing activity remained in contraction, and inflationary pressures stayed weak, weighed down by declining producer prices and stagnant wages.
Indonesia’s economy showed mixed performance, with growth projections revised down to 4.7%–5.0% and a fiscal deficit emerging amid a 6.2% YoY drop in tax revenues. While inflation rose due to volatile goods, the trade surplus persisted and retail activity improved slightly, prompting Bank Indonesia to cut interest rates to 5.25% this month to further support growth.
