United States The US expansion continues to be anchored by services and household demand while manufacturing lags. S&P Global Services PMI remained firmly expansionary in August 2025, cushioning headline growth against an ISM Manufacturing print below 50 that still signals a contracting factory sector. Inflation progress is uneven: headline CPI re-firmed to 2.9% YoY on energy and selected core goods, while core services disinflation remains gradual. Labor rebalancing is underway, unemployment around the mid-4% and softer payroll additions, yet wage normalization is only partial, implying a slow glide toward price stability. Goods demand surprised on the upside: August retail sales rose 0.6% MoM (ex-auto & gas +0.7%), with e-commerce and restaurants leading. Net trade is a drag as the nominal deficit widened on stronger imports, partly reflecting holiday restocking and policy-related price shifts. With the Fed delivering a 25bps cut in September  2025 and signaling data dependence, the base case is slower but positive growth into year-end, contingent on labor and shelter disinflation. Eurozone The euro area remains on a low-growth glide path, but survey data suggest early signs of broadening beyond services. The HCOB Composite PMI edged to roughly 51 in August 2025, with manufacturing returning to slight expansion for the first time since mid-2022, even as external demand remains soft. Consumer confidence is still deeply negative (around –15), and retail volumes remain choppy. Disinflation has largely run its course: the August 2025 flash Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) hovered just above 2% YoY, with non-energy industrial goods soft and services still relatively sticky. Industrial production trends are mixed but improving at the margin in core economies. Against this backdrop, the ECB held rates in September 2025 and retained a meeting-by-meeting stance, balancing near-target inflation with subdued growth. Medium-term momentum hinges on real wage gains, external demand stabilization, and policy clarity on fiscal and industry support. China China’s macro-data remains mixed, with modest expansion but persistent price and property headwinds. August 2025 official PMIs showed manufacturing still just below 50 and the composite index near 50.5, consistent with slow but still positive momentum as producers navigate weak domestic demand and uncertain external conditions. Industrial production grew 5.2% YoY, supported by high-tech and equipment manufacturing, while retail sales slowed to 3.4% YoY, reflecting cautious households and elevated precautionary saving. Disinflation persists: August CPI fell to 0.4% YoY and PPI remained in negative territory, underscoring subdued pricing power and higher real rates. Labor conditions softened slightly, with surveyed urban unemployment ticking up to 5.3% YoY. Property remains the principal drag: new-home prices fell 0.3% MoM in August 2025 across a majority of cities, and property investment and sales volumes contracted year-to-date. The annual growth target remains reachable but increasingly reliant on calibrated policy easing, strategic manufacturing investment, and selective support to household demand. Indonesia Indonesia’s September 2025 economic condition reflects resilience amid a synchronized policy push. President Prabowo has revised the official 2025 growth target to 5.3% (Perpres 79/2025), aligned with BI’s 4.6–5.4% projection and above Bloomberg consensus (4.8%), as fiscal and monetary authorities lean decisively pro-growth. Inflation eased slightly to 2.31% YoY in August 2025 after July 2025’s 2.37% YoY, driven by seasonal food and airfare adjustments, though core slowed to 2.17% YoY (the weakest since Sept-2024) signaling soft underlying demand. Manufacturing sentiment strengthened, with PMI returning to expansion (51.5), supported by machinery, food, and paper. Retail growth moderated to +2.67% YoY in August 2025 but rebounded to +3.67% in Q3 2025, lifted by discretionary and mobility-related spending despite persistent weakness in ICT goods. Externally, July 2025’s USD 4.17bn trade surplus (vs. USD 0.67bn a year earlier) underscores robust manufacturing exports (+22% YoY) and palm oil (+83%), though energy exports remain a drag. Policy support has been reinforced by BI’s 25 bps cut to 4.75% and a Rp200tn state-bank liquidity injection, which lifted banking ratios and credit growth. While the IIP widened to –USD 244.3bn (17.2% GDP), long-term FDI dominance (92% of liabilities) and solid reserves (USD 150.7bn, ~6 months import cover) provide buffers. Overall, Indonesia’s steady growth path is underpinned by pro-growth policies, resilient consumption, and strong external surpluses, though import strength, muted core demand, and global uncertainty remain key risks.